There is still further downside risk
To enter in 2016, the market of epoxy propane in the cold winter, the market price below 7000 yuan (tons of price, similarly hereinafter), shandong spot mainstream negotiating in 6550 ~ 6650 yuan.The personage inside course of study is generally believed that as the Spring Festival approaching, the downstream part of the small plant under the market weak holiday ahead of time, pressure of supply and demand is difficult to ease, under the main factory inventory pressure or will continue to test your offer, the market fall further danger.
Facing the industry reshuffle
Into 2016, epoxy propane market price breakthrough in the industry's bottom line again and again, broken "7" in the jaw-dropping, fallen nearly 25%。
JiLinBao source chemical trading company manager zhang xu, contradiction between supply and demand is the fuse of epoxy propane market to new low。In epoxy propane and downstream industry chain industry transformation and upgrade under growing pressure, 2016 May be old industry made a New Year。
According to statistics, in the industry, which had high profits attract, many capacity gradually released, by the end of 2015, the production capacity of more than 3。1 million tons, a surplus of industry。Former star product makes the high price 13000 yuan in 2014, after 2015 have dropped below ten thousand yuan, 9000 yuan and ten thousand yuan mark, giving a heavy blow。
"In the face of bleak market, 2016 epoxy propane industry pace of expansion will slow. Especially in the current environmental protection pressure, China's most emulsifcation of process equipment corrosion big difficult problem, waste water and waste residues, industry reshuffle is inevitable."Northeast China oil sales company director zhu said.
He thinks, from the point of long-term trends, traditional craft will face a gradual exit。Although the state encourages direct oxidation (HPPO) was still in the stage of development, new and old replace still need time, but the environmental protection and energy saving will be the mainstream in the future。To be sure, in 2016, the supply will continue to keep enough, epoxy propane is difficult to have a brilliant performance, there is continued to fall。
Raw material cost to collapse
Affected by the price of crude oil, the cost of the raw material propylene epoxy propane to collapse.It never rains but it pours is China's domestic propylene capacity continues to grow, under the market environment, the domestic propylene market entered a stage of unprecedented lows.
"Even though 2016 and next year the domestic market environment, domestic propylene production capacity will be stop amplification, especially methanol to olefins, and propane dehydrogenation project. According to the forecast, to 2018, the propylene production capacity of methanol to olefins technology in China will achieve 17.73 million tons/year, propane dehydrogenation process of propylene production capacity at the same time also will be increased by about 6 million tons/year. Domestic propylene supply gap will shrink gradually and even completely offset, excess pressure will also come."Zhang said.
In the afternoon, with increasing production capacity, the buyer will dominate the market, propylene factory say slashed.Propylene market is still expected to continue shakeouts trend, difficult for epoxy propane on the cost.
Demand bogged down
The current economic slowdown, China's GDP growth slowed to the lowest nearly 12 years.Overall demand follow up slowly, the terminal software furniture, real estate, cars and other industries are also relatively cold and cheerless.
Continued weak downstream demand on the market trading atmosphere, before relying on the dips to take positions in the downstream production enterprises and the operational space to cut part of middlemen。Although domestic epoxy propane market have hit a low, but still did not trigger the margin requirements to follow up, the market is still refresh again low expectations, the owners think dawn days away。
Polyether as epoxy propane's largest downstream consumption main force, their own lack of pricing power, passive follow the raw material price movements of epoxy propane, profits but also long been epoxy propane "eat".
"Polyether market under pressure from excess capacity cannot hit back, only passive. Especially near the Spring Festival, small factory holiday ahead of time, more demand for more light. The real estate industry to enter the off-season, heat preservation material requirements, after the stage cover still dominant negative, afternoon market is hard to get better."Director zhu said.
To sum up, epoxy propane market welcomed the coldest winter in 2016.The priority of domestic manufacturers, it is a must work hard in the environmental protection technology;The second is to rely on science and technology innovation to reduce costs, improve product competitiveness;Three is to optimize the industrial chain, improve product added value and form a pattern of upper and lower linkage, promote the industry out of the trough, realize the healthy development.